It is 2016 all over again, and very few have seemed to learn the lesson when it comes to Donald Trump. The Show-Me state’s record can demonstrate why Trump will most likely be the 2024 Republican nominee.
Some pundits have speculated that Trump couldn’t possibly be the Republican nominee, asserting that he is an albatross on the party and blaming him for their losses. While correct, that makes little difference at this point. Many are busy casting wishes that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or others would take Trump out. Many donors are literally banking on alternatives. From my perspective here in flyover country, it is too late. Republican base voters haven’t changed. They are not listening to elites, they will not care about any Trump indictment, and the mainstream news media is missing it again.
The days for stopping Trump were back in 2016, before he became the Republican presidential nominee, or in 2021 with his second impeachment trial. The establishment shirked its responsibilities both times, and now it is too late. Trump has enough voters, he has control of the state parties, he has a significant influence over the national party, and his opponents have done too little to distinguish themselves from Trump, let alone explain why he shouldn’t be president again.
After his 2016 win, reporters from all over the country descended on rural diners to study the Trump voter in order to understand the grievances and to explain what had just happened. The resentments that these voters feel haven’t changed over the last seven years, and to think they have is foolish.
My neighbor just replaced his somewhat tattered Trump flag with a brand new one, which incidentally hangs next to a flag exclaiming “Biden Sucks.” He, like other Republican base voters, still loves Trump. They think he did a great job and was robbed of his reelection in 2020. Polling confirms their stories. Trump’s approval rating among Republicans remains around 70%. Six in 10 Republicans continue to believe that Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 presidential election legitimately. These voters believe Trump will continue to fight for them and are ready to vote for him.
Most state Republican Parties, Missouri included, are fully controlled by the MAGA wing of the party. Candidates for elected office seek out Trump’s endorsement, and his endorsement matters in red states.